Rocket Classic First Round Leader
Four picks for this week’s First Round Leader Market
It’s been a while.
I haven’t used Substack in a long time, and I’m not entirely sure what drew me to doing it again at 11:10pm on a Wednesday night, but here we are.
For a long time, my first round leader picks have been quick hitters, with no justification on X. While I think that’s a format a tonne of people prefer, and ultimately it makes my life easier, I’m a huge advocate for justifying picks. That way, you get to see how I at least drew the wrong conclusion…
Anyway, here are my five First Round Leader picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and how I got there, with some additional field context as well.
Fastest Starters in the field this week:
Taylor Moore:
1st on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average
Average Round 1 Score - 68.60
Lowest Round 1 Score This Season - 62 (CJ Cup Byron Nelson)
Beau Hossler:
2nd on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average
Average Round 1 Score - 68.69
Lowest Round 1 Score This Season - 65 (Sony Open)
Lee Hodges:
3rd on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average
Average Round 1 Score - 68.93
Lowest Round 1 Score This Season - 64 (Charles Schwab, John Deere)
Nick Taylor:
4th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average
Average Round 1 Score - 68.95
Lowest Round 1 Score This Season - 62 (Sony Open)
Ricky Castillo:
5th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average
Average Round 1 Score - 69.00
Lowest Round 1 Score This Season - 65 (Charles Schwab, Canadian Open)
Austin Eckroat:
5th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average
Average Round 1 Score - 69.00
Lowest Round 1 Score This Season - 65 (CJ Cup Byron Nelson)
Doug Ghim:
5th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average
Average Round 1 Score - 69.00
Lowest Round 1 Score This Season - (CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Charles Schwab, Canadian Open)
Players in the Field With the Most Rounds in the 60s This Season
Si Woo Kim - 43
Ryo Hisatsune - 42
Jacob Bridgeman - 41
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - 40
Ryan Gerard - 39
Birdie or Better Percentage Leaders in the Field This Week
Si Woo Kim (25.85%)
Wyndham Clark (25.78%)
Jake Knapp (25.00%)
Kevin Yu (24.74%)
Akshay Bhatia (24.17%)
Jacob Bridgeman (24.17%)
All the First Round Leaders at the Rocket Classic
2019 - Nate Lashley - 63 (8:05 am #1)
2020 - Doc Redman - 65 (6:55 am #1)
Kevin Kisner - 65 (12:50pm #10)
Scott Stallings - 65 (7:55 am #1)
2021 - Davis Thompson - 63 (8:35 am #10)
2022 - Tony Finau - 64 (7:18 am #10),
Taylor Pendrith - 64 (8:13 am #10)
2023 - Peter Kuest - 64 (8:46 am #1)
Taylor Moore - 64 (12:54 pm #1)
2024 - Akshay Bhatia - 64 (12:43 pm #1)
2025 - Kevin Roy - 62 (12:10 pm #1)
Aldrich Potgieter - 62 (12:21 pm #10)
Rocket Classic First Round Leader Tips
Here are my picks for the week - with no evident bias on tee times or starting tee, I think it’s worth splitting across the morning and afternoon tee times.
J.J. Spaun 45/1 e/w (PricedUp 6 Places 1/5 Odds)
J.J. Spaun held the first round lead two weeks in a row, at the Memorial and the Charles Schwab Challenge, and he’s been 14th, 27th and 39th after round 1 in his past three starts, which is steady enough.
He clearly enjoys the course as well, having sat inside the top 1 after round 1 in 3 of the past 5 years, and inside the top 11 four times in total, plus, if anything, I would expect the course changes to suit him, with perhaps less emphasis on just outright distance off the tee.
9 times in his career, Spaun has held the first round lead on the PGA Tour, 4 of which have come over the last two years. Add two first round leads on the Korn Ferry Tour and you have a players who’s well known for fast starts, and given the form he’s in, there’s every chance he adds a 10th FRL on the PGA Tour, at a course where he’s finished inside the top 10 in two of his last three visits.
Spaun will tee off at 12:54 pm from the 1st tee, which is fine as he ranks inside the top 30 for late round 1 scoring average.
Eric Cole 70/1 e/w (BetMGM 6 Places 1/5 Odds)
Cole has started slowly in his past three events, but before that he had held two first round leads in a row, at the Canadian Open and the Travelers.
Despite a slow start at the Open Championship last time, Cole shot a second round 64 and third round 66, both huge positives, and he also shot a second round 63 at the John Deere Classic, which was the round of the day, before closing out with a 65. So despite a couple of slow starts in recent weeks, he’s still displayed excellent scoring ability.
Now, he returns to the Rocket Classic, where he finished 6th on debut and was in 4th place after round 1, so with a lot of good scoring form in recent weeks, and two first round leads in his past five starts - I can’t help but think he’s overpriced at 70/1.
Cole will tee off at in the opening group, from the 1st tee, at 7am local time.
Doug Ghim 70/1 e/w (BetMGM 6 Places 1/5 Odds)
Doug Ghim has been playing excellent golf, shooting 29 rounds in the 60s in his last 38, and he’s -22 on Par 4s in those 38 rounds, a bonus given two of the par 5s have been changed to long par 4s here.
Ghim has been hit and miss here, but he has been inside the top 10 after round 1 once in his career at Detroit Golf Club, and he was in 7th place after round 1 four starts ago, so he’s got a recent fast start, as well as a decent round 1 effort in Detroit.
He may have missed his last two cuts, but the long-term form is good, and he shot two rounds of 65 at the John Deere Classic just three starts ago, so there’s still plenty to like.
Ghim is another morning starter, with an 8:28 am tee time from the 10th tee on Thursday.
Taylor Moore 90/1 e/w (BetMGM 6 Places 1/5 Odds)
Taylor Moore comes into this one out of form, having missed his last three cuts, but he returns to a course he clearly loves, and statistically he’s the fastest starter on Tour this season, ranking 1st in Round 1 Scoring Average.
Moore finished inside the top 10 here in his first three starts, finishing 6th, 4th and 10th, and he sat 8th, 1st and 17th after round 1, on those visits.
Given he has held the first round lead here before and recently led after round 1 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, I’m happy to take a shot on him at decent odds.
Moore gives us another afternoon starter, as he starts his round at 1:38 pm from the 1st tee. He leads the Tour in late round 1 scoring average this season, as well as leading the Tour in late round 1 scoring, so the afternoon tee time suits me.